Definitions and calculations

On this page

The 2x2 Table - Stats Ground Zero

2x2 table: diagnostic test accuracy metrics

The foundational tool for calculating a test's accuracy. It cross-tabulates the test result against the true disease status (gold standard).

Disease +Disease -
Test +True Positive (TP)False Positive (FP)
Test -False Negative (FN)True Negative (TN)
  • Specificity: Identifies true negatives. $Specificity = TN / (TN + FP)$

⭐ 📌 SNOUT & SPIN: A highly Sensitive test, when negative, rules out disease. A highly Specific test, when positive, rules in disease.

Sensitivity & Specificity - SNOUT & SPIN

  • Sensitivity: True Positive Rate (TPR). Proportion of individuals with the disease who test positive.

    • Formula: $Sensitivity = TP / (TP + FN)$
    • 📌 SNOUT: A highly Sensitive test, when Negative, helps rule OUT the disease.
  • Specificity: True Negative Rate (TNR). Proportion of individuals without the disease who test negative.

    • Formula: $Specificity = TN / (TN + FP)$
    • 📌 SPIN: A highly Specific test, when Positive, helps rule IN the disease.

2x2 Table: Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values

⭐ High sensitivity tests are crucial for screening, minimizing false negatives (e.g., initial HIV screen). High specificity tests are used for confirmation, minimizing false positives (e.g., Western blot for HIV).

Predictive Values - Prevalence Power

  • Positive Predictive Value (PPV): Probability that a person with a positive test result truly has the disease.

    • Formula: $PPV = \frac{TP}{TP + FP}$
  • Negative Predictive Value (NPV): Probability that a person with a negative test result is truly disease-free.

    • Formula: $NPV = \frac{TN}{TN + FN}$
  • Prevalence Dependence: Unlike sensitivity and specificity, predictive values are heavily influenced by the pre-test probability (prevalence).

    • If Prevalence : PPV , NPV
    • If Prevalence : PPV , NPV

⭐ A screening test is most useful when applied to a high-prevalence population because the PPV will be higher, leading to fewer false-positive scares.

image

Likelihood Ratios - Odds On Favourite

  • Likelihood Ratios (LRs) quantify how much a test result changes the likelihood of having a disease. They are independent of prevalence.
  • Positive LR (LR+): The increase in odds of disease given a positive test.

    • $LR+ = \frac{Sensitivity}{(1 - Specificity)}$
    • A useful test has an LR+ > 10.
  • Negative LR (LR-): The decrease in odds of disease given a negative test.

    • $LR- = \frac{(1 - Sensitivity)}{Specificity}$
    • A useful test has an LR- < 0.1.
  • Application: Post-test odds = Pre-test odds × LR.

⭐ An LR of 1 means the test result does not change the likelihood of disease at all. The post-test probability equals the pre-test probability.

Likelihood Ratios: Interpretation of LR+ and LR- values shift pre-test probability to post-test probability)

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • Sensitivity measures how well a test identifies people with the disease (true positive rate). It is vital for screening tests.
  • Use the SNOUT mnemonic: a SeNsitive test with a Negative result helps rule OUT the disease.
  • Specificity measures how well a test identifies people without the disease (true negative rate). It is crucial for confirmatory tests.
  • Use the SPIN mnemonic: a SPecific test with a Positive result helps rule IN the disease.
  • Both are intrinsic properties of a test and are not affected by disease prevalence.

Practice Questions: Definitions and calculations

Test your understanding with these related questions

A scientist in Chicago is studying a new blood test to detect Ab to EBV with increased sensitivity and specificity. So far, her best attempt at creating such an exam reached 82% sensitivity and 88% specificity. She is hoping to increase these numbers by at least 2 percent for each value. After several years of work, she believes that she has actually managed to reach a sensitivity and specificity much greater than what she had originally hoped for. She travels to China to begin testing her newest blood test. She finds 2,000 patients who are willing to participate in her study. Of the 2,000 patients, 1,200 of them are known to be infected with EBV. The scientist tests these 1,200 patients' blood and finds that only 120 of them tested negative with her new exam. Of the patients who are known to be EBV-free, only 20 of them tested positive. Given these results, which of the following correlates with the exam's specificity?

1 of 5

Flashcards: Definitions and calculations

1/10

_____ is the probability that when the disease is present, the test is positive

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

_____ is the probability that when the disease is present, the test is positive

Sensitivity

browseSpaceflip

Enjoying this lesson?

Get full access to all lessons, practice questions, and more.

Start Your Free Trial