Evidence basis for screening recommendations

Evidence basis for screening recommendations

Evidence basis for screening recommendations

On this page

Screening Metrics - Numbers Don't Lie

2x2 Table for Screening Test Performance Calculation

  • Sensitivity & Specificity (Intrinsic to the test)

    • Sensitivity: $TP / (TP + FN)$. Probability of a positive test in a diseased person.
      • High sensitivity is used to Screen and Negate a disease (SNOUT).
    • Specificity: $TN / (TN + FP)$. Probability of a negative test in a healthy person.
      • High specificity is used to SPin and IN a diagnosis (SPIN).
  • Predictive Values (Vary with disease prevalence)

    • Positive Predictive Value (PPV): $TP / (TP + FP)$.
    • Negative Predictive Value (NPV): $TN / (TN + FN)$.
  • Likelihood Ratios (LR)

    • Positive LR (LR+): $Sensitivity / (1 - Specificity)$. For a positive test result.
      • LR+ >10 indicates a large and often conclusive increase in the likelihood of disease.
    • Negative LR (LR-): $(1 - Sensitivity) / Specificity$. For a negative test result.
      • LR- <0.1 indicates a large and often conclusive decrease in the likelihood of disease.

Prevalence Effect: Sensitivity and Specificity are intrinsic to the test and do not change with prevalence. However, PPV is directly proportional to prevalence, while NPV is inversely proportional.

Screening Biases - Tricky Data Traps

  • Lead-Time Bias: Apparent increase in survival time just from detecting a disease earlier. The disease's natural history and outcome are not actually changed. Think of it as starting the survival clock sooner.

  • Length-Time Bias: Screening is more likely to detect slow-growing, less aggressive diseases. Fast-growing, aggressive diseases often cause symptoms between screening intervals. This makes the screening program look better than it is.

  • Selection (Volunteer) Bias: People who choose to get screened are often healthier and more health-conscious than those who don't. Their better outcomes might be due to their healthier lifestyle, not the screening.

⭐ The gold standard to overcome these biases is a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) demonstrating a reduction in disease-specific mortality.

Evidence Grading - The USPSTF Report Card

The USPSTF assigns a letter grade based on the strength of evidence and the balance of benefits and harms of a preventive service.

  • Grade A: High certainty of substantial net benefit.
    • Action: Offer or provide this service.
  • Grade B: High certainty of moderate or moderate certainty of substantial net benefit.
    • Action: Offer or provide this service.
  • Grade C: Moderate certainty of small net benefit.
    • Action: Offer selectively to individual patients.
  • Grade D: Moderate/High certainty of no net benefit or that harms outweigh benefits.
    • Action: Discourage use.
  • I Statement: Evidence is insufficient, conflicting, or poor quality.
    • Action: Clinical judgment; shared decision-making.

⭐ For the exam, services with grades A and B are generally recommended and should be offered.

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • USPSTF Grades are crucial: Grade A/B means offer the service. Grade D means discourage use. Grade I indicates insufficient evidence.
  • Screening studies are prone to lead-time bias (earlier detection without changing outcome) and length-time bias (detecting more indolent cases).
  • Overdiagnosis is a critical harm of screening-detecting disease that would never have become clinically significant.
  • The Number Needed to Screen (NNS) is a key metric for evaluating the efficiency of a screening program.

Practice Questions: Evidence basis for screening recommendations

Test your understanding with these related questions

A randomized controlled trial is conducted investigating the effects of different diagnostic imaging modalities on breast cancer mortality. 8,000 women are randomized to receive either conventional mammography or conventional mammography with breast MRI. The primary outcome is survival from the time of breast cancer diagnosis. The conventional mammography group has a median survival after diagnosis of 17.0 years. The MRI plus conventional mammography group has a median survival of 19.5 years. If this difference is statistically significant, which form of bias may be affecting the results?

1 of 5

Flashcards: Evidence basis for screening recommendations

1/10

One positive screening test for Cushing syndrome is an increased midnight _____ cortisol

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

One positive screening test for Cushing syndrome is an increased midnight _____ cortisol

salivary

browseSpaceflip

Enjoying this lesson?

Get full access to all lessons, practice questions, and more.

Start Your Free Trial