Interim analyses

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Interim Analyses - The Planned Peek

  • Planned analysis of data in an ongoing RCT before the study's conclusion.
  • Primary goal: To determine if the trial should be stopped early for:
    • Overwhelming efficacy
    • Futility (unlikely to show benefit)
    • Unexpected harm
  • ⚠️ Problem: Each "peek" at the data increases the overall Type I error rate (false positive) if not adjusted.
  • Solution: Use a pre-specified statistical "stopping rule" with alpha-spending functions to maintain the overall study-wide $α$ (usually < 0.05).

Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA) boundaries for RCTs

⭐ The O'Brien-Fleming boundary is a common, conservative method that requires a very low p-value for early stopping, preserving statistical power for the final analysis.

Stopping Boundaries - Guarding the Alpha

Repeatedly analyzing data during a trial inflates the overall Type I error rate (family-wise error rate), increasing the chance of a false-positive result. Stopping boundaries are pre-specified rules to control this risk.

  • Formal Methods to Adjust Significance:
    • O'Brien-Fleming (OBF):
      • Very conservative early in the trial; requires an extremely low p-value to stop.
      • The significance boundary becomes less stringent as more data is collected.
      • Preserves statistical power and the final analysis uses an alpha level very close to the nominal 0.05.
      • 📌 O'Brien-Fleming = Oh Boy, Far to go! (Hard to stop early).
    • Pocock:
      • Uses the same, constant significance level (e.g., p < 0.015) at each interim analysis.
      • "Spends" alpha equally at each look, making it easier to stop early compared to OBF.

Group-Sequential Plot with Efficacy and Futility Boundaries

⭐ The O'Brien-Fleming method is most common for clinical trials because its early conservatism prevents premature termination based on transient effects, preserving overall trial power and integrity.

Trial Adjustments - The Ripple Effect

  • Interim analyses risk ↑ Type I error (false positives) from repeated data "peeking." The total trial alpha (e.g., 0.05) must be "spent" across looks.
  • Alpha-spending functions adjust significance boundaries:
    • O'Brien-Fleming: Very conservative early on; preserves power.
    • Pocock: Constant p-value boundary for each look.
    • Haybittle-Peto Rule: Use a strict interim $p < \textbf{0.001}$ and the original final $p < \textbf{0.05}$.
  • Other changes (e.g., sample size re-estimation) can be made but risk introducing bias.

⭐ Each data "peek" is another roll of the dice, increasing the cumulative chance of a false-positive (Type I error) if the significance threshold isn't adjusted.

Alpha spending function boundaries

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • Interim analyses are performed during an RCT to monitor for efficacy, futility, or harm.
  • Requires an independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) to review unblinded data.
  • Uses pre-specified stopping boundaries to guide decisions on trial continuation or termination.
  • Multiple analyses increase the risk of Type I error (false positives).
  • Statistical adjustments, like alpha-spending functions, are used to maintain the overall p-value < 0.05.
  • Early stopping for benefit is a major ethical consideration.

Practice Questions: Interim analyses

Test your understanding with these related questions

A surgeon is interested in studying how different surgical techniques impact the healing of tendon injuries. In particular, he will compare 3 different types of suture repairs biomechanically in order to determine the maximum load before failure of the tendon 2 weeks after repair. He collects data on maximum load for 90 different repaired tendons from an animal model. Thirty tendons were repaired using each of the different suture techniques. Which of the following statistical measures is most appropriate for analyzing the results of this study?

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Flashcards: Interim analyses

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Randomization is critical in preventing _____

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

Randomization is critical in preventing _____

confounding bias

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