Reporting in medical literature

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Relative Risk - Cohort's Crystal Ball

  • What it is: The probability of an outcome in an exposed group compared to the probability in a non-exposed group.
  • When to use it: The primary measure for cohort studies (both prospective and retrospective).
  • Formula: $RR = \frac{a/(a+b)}{c/(c+d)}$
  • Interpretation:
    • $RR = 1$: No association between exposure and outcome.
    • $RR > 1$: Exposure increases the risk of the outcome.
    • $RR < 1$: Exposure decreases the risk of the outcome (protective effect).

⭐ Because RR relies on calculating incidence, it can only be determined in studies that follow groups over time to see who develops the disease.

2x2 table for Relative Risk calculation

Odds Ratio - Case-Control's Clue

2x2 table for odds ratio calculation

  • Primary Use: The go-to measure of association in case-control studies.
  • Calculation: Compares the odds of prior exposure among cases (with disease) to the odds of prior exposure among controls (without disease).
    • Formula: $OR = (a/c) / (b/d) = ad/bc$
  • Interpretation:
    • $OR = 1$: No association.
    • $OR > 1$: Increased odds of disease with exposure.
    • $OR < 1$: Decreased odds of disease with exposure (protective).

⭐ For rare diseases (low prevalence, typically <10%), the odds ratio closely approximates the relative risk (RR).

OR vs. RR - The Great Debate

  • Odds Ratio (OR): The primary measure for case-control studies. Compares the odds of exposure in the disease group to the odds of exposure in the control group.
  • Relative Risk (RR): The standard for cohort studies. Compares the risk of developing a disease in the exposed group to the unexposed group. Requires incidence data.
  • The Approximation: OR approximates RR when the disease is rare (the "rare disease assumption").
    • As disease prevalence ↑, the OR increasingly overestimates the RR.

⭐ When interpreting studies, always check the study design. If it's a case-control study, the reported OR is an estimate of the RR. For common diseases, this estimate can be a significant exaggeration of the true risk.

Interpretation - Confidence is Everything

  • The 95% Confidence Interval (CI) is key to interpreting RR & OR. It estimates the range where the true population value lies.
  • If the 95% CI includes 1.0: The result is NOT statistically significant (p ≥ 0.05). There is no significant association between the exposure and outcome.
  • If the 95% CI does NOT include 1.0: The result IS statistically significant (p < 0.05).
    • CI entirely > 1.0: Statistically significant ↑ risk/odds.
    • CI entirely < 1.0: Statistically significant ↓ risk/odds (protective effect).

⭐ If the 95% CI for an odds ratio or relative risk does not include 1.0, the corresponding p-value will be < 0.05, indicating a statistically significant result.

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • The odds ratio (OR) is the primary measure of association in case-control studies.
  • The relative risk (RR) is the primary measure for cohort studies.
  • When the disease prevalence is low (typically <10%), the OR provides a good approximation of the RR.
  • If the 95% confidence interval for an OR or RR contains 1.0, the result is not statistically significant.
  • An OR overestimates the strength of an association compared to the RR, especially as disease prevalence increases.

Practice Questions: Reporting in medical literature

Test your understanding with these related questions

A researcher is investigating whether there is an association between the use of social media in teenagers and bipolar disorder. In order to study this potential relationship, she collects data from people who have bipolar disorder and matched controls without the disorder. She then asks how much on average these individuals used social media in the 3 years prior to their diagnosis. This continuous data is divided into 2 groups: those who used more than 2 hours per day and those who used less than 2 hours per day. She finds that out of 1000 subjects, 500 had bipolar disorder of which 300 used social media more than 2 hours per day. She also finds that 400 subjects who did not have the disorder also did not use social media more than 2 hours per day. Which of the following is the odds ratio for development of bipolar disorder after being exposed to more social media?

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Flashcards: Reporting in medical literature

1/10

_____ are a range of values within which the true mean of the population is expected to fall, with a specified probability (usually 95%)

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

_____ are a range of values within which the true mean of the population is expected to fall, with a specified probability (usually 95%)

Confidence intervals

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