Absolute risk vs relative measures

Absolute risk vs relative measures

Absolute risk vs relative measures

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Absolute Risk - The Baseline Truth

  • Absolute Risk (AR), also known as incidence, represents the actual probability of an event occurring in a specific population over a defined time period.
  • It provides the baseline risk for a group, without comparison to another. It's the starting point for risk assessment.
  • Calculation:
    • $AR = \frac{\text{Number of new cases in a group}}{\text{Total number of people in that group}}$

High-Yield: AR is crucial for calculating Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) and Number Needed to Treat (NNT), which directly inform clinical decisions.

Absolute risk of Parkinson's Disease by age and gender

Relative Measures - The Comparison Game

  • Relative Risk (RR): Compares the risk of a health event (disease) in an exposed group to the risk in an unexposed group. Primarily used in cohort studies.

    • Formula: $RR = \frac{a/(a+b)}{c/(c+d)}$
  • Odds Ratio (OR): Compares the odds of exposure among those with the disease to the odds of exposure among those without it. Used in case-control studies.

    • Formula: $OR = \frac{ad}{bc}$

2x2 Contingency Table for Biostatistics

MeasureInterpretationStudy Type
RR / OR > 1↑ Risk with exposureCohort (RR)
RR / OR = 1No associationCase-Control (OR)
RR / OR < 1↓ Risk with exposure (protective)Both

Odds Ratio - The Case-Control Cousin

  • Primary Use: The go-to measure for case-control studies. It answers: "What are the odds that a person with the disease was exposed to a risk factor, compared to a person without the disease?"
  • Calculation: Compares the odds of exposure among cases to the odds of exposure among controls.
    • Formula: $OR = (a/c) / (b/d) = ad/bc$
    • a: Cases with exposure
    • b: Controls with exposure
    • c: Cases without exposure
    • d: Controls without exposure
  • Interpretation:
    • $OR > 1$: ↑ Odds of exposure in cases (risk factor).
    • $OR < 1$: ↓ Odds of exposure in cases (protective factor).
    • $OR = 1$: No association.

When Disease is Rare: The odds ratio approximates the relative risk (RR). This is a key assumption when interpreting OR from case-control studies as if it were RR.

Odds Ratio Calculation from 2x2 Table

Clinical Impact - Absolute vs. Relative

  • Relative measures (RR, OR) show the strength of an association but can overstate treatment effects.
    • A large Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) might correspond to a tiny absolute change.
  • Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) provides a clearer picture of clinical impact.
    • Represents the actual percentage of people who benefit from the intervention.
  • Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is a highly intuitive clinical measure.
    • Formula: $NNT = 1/ARR$.
    • Answers: "How many people must I treat to prevent one adverse event?"

High-Yield: Be wary of interventions promoted with large Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) figures. Always examine the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) to gauge the true clinical benefit, as a large RRR can mask a minuscule ARR.

20% Relative Risk Reduction for Primary End Point

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • Odds Ratio (OR) is the key measure for case-control studies; it approximates Relative Risk (RR) when disease prevalence is low.
  • Relative Risk (RR) is the standard for cohort studies, directly comparing incidence between exposed and unexposed groups.
  • An OR/RR > 1 implies an association with the exposure, while < 1 suggests a protective effect.
  • Absolute measures (like ARR) describe the actual risk difference, which is more clinically meaningful than relative measures (like RRR).

Practice Questions: Absolute risk vs relative measures

Test your understanding with these related questions

You have been asked to quantify the relative risk of developing bacterial meningitis following exposure to a patient with active disease. You analyze 200 patients in total, half of which are controls. In the trial arm, 30% of exposed patients ultimately contracted bacterial meningitis. In the unexposed group, only 1% contracted the disease. Which of the following is the relative risk due to disease exposure?

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Flashcards: Absolute risk vs relative measures

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_____ studies are observational studies that compares groups with a given exposure or risk factor to a group without such exposure

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

_____ studies are observational studies that compares groups with a given exposure or risk factor to a group without such exposure

Cohort

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