Cohort studies

Cohort studies

Published January 10, 2026

Cohort studies

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Cohort Studies - The Time Traveler's Log

An observational design that follows a group of people (a cohort) forward in time. It compares outcomes between individuals exposed to a factor and those unexposed. Think of it as watching a movie unfold from a specific starting point.

  • Process: Start with a disease-free population → group by exposure status → follow over time → compare disease incidence.

⭐ Best observational design for establishing temporality (i.e., the exposure truly precedes the outcome).

Types of Cohorts - Future vs. Past

  • Prospective Cohort Study

    • Starts in the present and follows a group of individuals (cohort) forward in time to observe who develops the outcome.
    • Pros: Better control over data collection, can establish incidence.
    • Cons: Expensive, time-consuming, and inefficient for rare diseases.
  • Retrospective (Historical) Cohort Study

    • Uses existing data (e.g., medical records) to identify a cohort and trace them forward from a past exposure to a subsequent outcome.
    • Pros: Quick and inexpensive.
    • Cons: Less control over data quality; prone to confounding.

Prospective vs. Retrospective Cohort Study Design

⭐ A key advantage of prospective studies is their ability to directly calculate incidence rates (new cases over a period), which is not possible with retrospective designs.

Risk Calculation - Crunching the Numbers

2x2 table for exposure and outcome in cohort studies

Disease +Disease -
Exposure +ab
Exposure -cd
-   Formula: $RR = [a/(a+b)] / [c/(c+d)]$
-   Interpretation: RR > **1** (increased risk), RR < **1** (decreased risk), RR = **1** (no association).
  • Attributable Risk (AR): The difference in risk between exposed and unexposed groups.
    • Formula: $AR = [a/(a+b)] - [c/(c+d)]$

⭐ Relative risk is the primary measure of association for cohort studies.

Pros & Cons - A Balancing Act

  • Strengths:

    • Can establish temporality (exposure → outcome).
    • Allows calculation of incidence and relative risk ($RR$).
    • Excellent for studying rare exposures.
    • Can investigate multiple outcomes simultaneously.
  • Weaknesses:

    • Inefficient and costly for rare diseases.
    • Long duration (especially prospective) leads to high costs and potential for loss to follow-up (attrition bias).
    • Susceptible to confounding variables.

⭐ The key strength of cohort studies is their ability to establish temporality, a crucial element for inferring causality.

Common Biases - The Study Spoilers

  • Selection Bias: Groups differ systematically at baseline. Particularly in retrospective cohorts due to non-random selection of records (e.g., healthy worker effect).
  • Loss to Follow-up (Attrition) Bias: Participants who drop out differ from those who remain. E.g., if sicker patients leave one group, the outcome is skewed.
  • Confounding Bias: An external variable is associated with both the exposure and the outcome, distorting the true relationship.

⭐ Loss to follow-up >20% is considered high and seriously threatens the study's validity.

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • Cohort studies can be prospective (forward-looking) or retrospective (using past records).
  • They follow groups with and without an exposure over time to see who develops the disease.
  • The key measure of association is Relative Risk (RR).
  • Excellent for establishing temporality (exposure precedes outcome) and calculating incidence.
  • Major limitations: expensive, time-consuming, and inefficient for rare diseases.
  • Particularly susceptible to selection bias and loss to follow-up bias.

Practice Questions: Cohort studies

Test your understanding with these related questions

A researcher is studying whether a new knee implant is better than existing alternatives in terms of pain after knee replacement. She designs the study so that it includes all the surgeries performed at a certain hospital. Interestingly, she notices that patients who underwent surgeries on Mondays and Thursdays reported much better pain outcomes on a survey compared with those who underwent the same surgeries from the same surgeons on Tuesdays and Fridays. Upon performing further analysis, she discovers that one of the staff members who works on Mondays and Thursdays is aware of the study and tells all the patients about how wonderful the new implant is. Which of the following forms of bias does this most likely represent?

1 of 5

Flashcards: Cohort studies

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Both twin concordance and adoption studies are useful for measuring '_____'

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

Both twin concordance and adoption studies are useful for measuring '_____'

nature vs. nurture

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