Analytical Epidemiology

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Overview of Analytical Epi - Hypothesis Hunters

  • Purpose: To test pre-defined hypotheses about relationships between exposures and outcomes.
  • Key Feature: Utilizes comparison groups (e.g., exposed vs. unexposed, cases vs. controls).
  • Goal: Quantify the association and infer causality.
  • Contrasts with descriptive epidemiology, which focuses on generating hypotheses by describing disease distribution.

⭐ Analytical studies are designed to test hypotheses, unlike descriptive studies which generate them.

  • Answers "Why?" and "How?" disease occurs.

Case-Control Studies - Past Probers

  • Retrospective: Start with outcome (cases vs. controls), look back for exposure. "Past Probers."
  • Selection:
    • Cases: Have the disease.
    • Controls: Don't have disease; from same source population.
  • Measure of Association: Odds Ratio (OR).
    • Calculated as $ad/bc$. (a=exposed cases, b=exposed controls, c=unexposed cases, d=unexposed controls)
    • OR > 1: ↑ risk; OR < 1: ↓ risk; OR = 1: No association.
  • Advantages: Good for rare diseases, quick, less expensive, studies multiple exposures.
  • Biases: 📌 People Selectively Remember (Selection, Recall), Berksonian bias. Case-Control Study Design: Cases, Controls, Exposure

⭐ Odds Ratio (OR) is the key measure of association in case-control studies. It's suitable for rare diseases.

Cohort Studies - Future Followers

  • Observational; subjects grouped by exposure, followed to assess outcome incidence.
  • Types: 📌 PAR
    • Prospective: Exposure → Future Outcome.
    • Retrospective (Historical): Past Exposure (records) → Outcome.
    • Ambidirectional: Combines past records & future follow-up.
  • Key measure: Relative Risk (RR).
    • Formula: $RR = [a/(a+b)] / [c/(c+d)]$.
  • Strengths: Establishes temporality, studies multiple outcomes, good for rare exposures, calculates incidence.
  • Weaknesses: Loss to follow-up bias, costly & lengthy (especially prospective). Cohort Study Design Diagram

⭐ Relative Risk (RR) is the key measure of association. A major strength is establishing temporality (exposure precedes outcome).

MeasureWhen Used (Study Type)Calculation (2x2 table: a,b,c,d)Interpretation
Odds Ratio (OR)Case-Control, Cross-sectional$ad/bc$Odds of exposure: cases vs. controls.
Relative Risk (RR)Cohort$(a/(a+b)) / (c/(c+d))$Risk of disease: exposed vs. unexposed.
- Attributable Risk (AR) / Risk Difference (RD): $I_e - I_u$
- Attributable Fraction (AF) for exposed ($AF_e$): $(AR / I_e) \times \textbf{100}\%$ or $((RR-1)/RR) \times \textbf{100}\%$
- Population Attributable Risk (PAR): $I_p - I_u$ or $AR \times P_e$ ($P_e$: exposure prevalence in pop.)
- Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) / PAR Percent ($PAF_p$): $(PAR / I_p) \times \textbf{100}\%$ or $(P_e(RR-1) / (P_e(RR-1)+1)) \times \textbf{100}\%$

⭐ Attributable Risk (AR) or Risk Difference ($I_e - I_u$) quantifies the excess risk in the exposed group directly attributable to the exposure.

Bias, Confounding & Causality - Truth Seekers

  • Bias: Systematic error in design/conduct leading to incorrect association.
    • Selection Bias: Distorted due to how subjects are selected (e.g., Berksonian, Neyman).
    • Information Bias (Misclassification): Errors in measuring exposure/outcome (e.g., Recall, Interviewer, Observer). 📌 RIO (Recall, Interviewer, Observer).
  • Confounding: Extraneous variable associated with exposure & outcome, distorts true relationship. Confounder, Mediator, and Collider in Epidemiology

    ⭐ Confounding can be controlled at design (randomization, restriction, matching) or analysis stage (stratification, multivariate analysis).

  • Causality (Bradford Hill): Key criteria: Temporality (E before O - essential!), Strength, Consistency, Biological gradient, Plausibility, Coherence.

High‑Yield Points - ⚡ Biggest Takeaways

  • Case-control studies: Effect to cause (disease → exposure). Metric: Odds Ratio (OR). For rare diseases.
  • Cohort studies: Cause to effect (exposure → disease). Metrics: Relative Risk (RR), Attributable Risk (AR). For rare exposures.
  • Odds Ratio (OR) = (ad/bc). Approximates RR if disease prevalence is low.
  • Relative Risk (RR) indicates strength of association. >1 means ↑ risk.
  • Attributable Risk (AR) represents excess risk due to exposure.
  • Key Biases: Selection bias, Recall bias (in case-control), Interviewer bias.
  • Control confounding with matching, stratification, or multivariate analysis.

Practice Questions: Analytical Epidemiology

Test your understanding with these related questions

A study that examines individuals who have already contracted a disease to identify risk factors is called:

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Flashcards: Analytical Epidemiology

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_____ bias occurs due to differential hospital admission rates.

TAP TO REVEAL ANSWER

_____ bias occurs due to differential hospital admission rates.

Berkesonian

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