Capital Market Expectations, Part 2: Forecasting Asset Class Returns CFA Flashcards - Medical Study Cards
Master Capital Market Expectations, Part 2: Forecasting Asset Class Returns with Oncourse flashcards. These spaced repetition flashcards are designed for medical students preparing for NEET PG, USMLE Step 1, USMLE Step 2, MBBS exams, and other medical licensing examinations.
Capital Market Expectations, Part 2: Forecasting Asset Class Returns Flashcard Deck - 10 Cards
Flashcard 1: Approaches to Economic Forecasting
Answer: 1. Econometric Models
2. Economic Indicators
3. Checklist Approach
Flashcard 2: Covariance
Answer: 
Flashcard 3: Z-Scores
Answer: 5% = 1.65\
1% = 2.33
Flashcard 4: Covariance (Long)
Answer: Cov(i,j)=Beta(i,1)\*Beta(j,1)\*Var(F1) + Beta(i,2)\*Beta(j,2)\*Var(F2) + (Beta(i,1)\*Beta(j,2)+(Beta(i,2)\*Beta(j,1))\*Cov(F1,F2)
Flashcard 5: Singer and Terhaar
Answer: The Singer and Terhaar model adjusts the ICAPM for market imperfections, such as illiquidity and segmentation.
For illiquidity compare the expected return from ICAPM and the return necessary to equate its Sharpe ratio to that of the market to derive the illiquidity premium.
For segmentation take the weighted average of the equity risk premium at full integration and full segmentation.
Flashcard 6: Commodities as an Inflation Hedge
Answer: Two factors affect whether a commodity is a good hedge against unexpected inflation: storability and demand relative to economic activity.
- Storable commodities have superior inflation hedging properties.
- Commodities that are most affected by the level of economic activity (energy, precious metals) tend to be better inflation hedges.
Flashcard 7: Financial Equilibrium Approach
Answer: The Financial Equilibrium Approach assumes that supply and demand in global asset markets are in balance. One such model is ICAPM:

Flashcard 8: Cash and Inflation
Answer: - Low inflation does not affect the return on cash instruments.
- Higher inflation is a positive for cash because the returns on cash instruments increase as inflation increases.
- Deflation is negative for cash because the return falls to almost zero.
Flashcard 9: Grinold and Kroner
Answer: Takes the Gordon Growth model a step further by including a variable that adjusts for stock repurchases and changes in market valuations as represented by the P/E ratio.

Can be grouped into three parts:
1. Expected income return: (D/P) - Delta(S). Repurchases increase cash paid to stockholders.
2. Expected nominal earnings growth: (i+g)
3. Repricing return: (Delta(P/E)).
Flashcard 10: The Yardeni Model\
*Relative Equity Market Valuation*
Answer: Is based on a variation of the constant growth dividend discount model.

The earnings yield from the Yardeni model is compared to the market earnings yield. If the market is high compared to the Yardeni yield, equities are under-priced.
Pros:
- Incorporates equity risk by using corporate bond yields
- Includes earnings growth
Cons:
- True equity risk premium are higher than corporate bond risk premiums
- Earnings estimates can be wrong
- Assumes discount rate is constant
- d is a fudge factor
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